The market has flipped: only about 42% now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at the September meeting, with roughly 58% pricing a move. That is a sharper repricing than futures markets imply, and it resolves on 16 September.
Enthusiasm has cooled. Traders give BTC roughly a 25% chance of touching $100,000 by 31 December, down from a third a week ago — the kind of drift that rewards patient sellers of the tail.
ETH is the closest thing to a coin flip on the board: about 48% for a push to $3,000 by year-end against 52% that it does not get there — no consensus, and a wide two-way edge for anyone with a view.
Escalation is priced but not expected: around a 16% chance of a US invasion of Iran before 2027, with the related ceasefire markets repricing on every headline.
Lula's lead has narrowed to about 56% in one of the largest international political markets by trading volume, with roughly 44% now against him ahead of the October vote.
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