JD Vance leads the 2028 winner market at roughly 21%, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez near 13% and Gavin Newsom around 8%. With two years to run, no candidate is above one-in-five — this is what genuine uncertainty looks like in a liquid market.
The Republican side is far more settled than the headline market: Vance is priced around 51% for the nomination, Marco Rubio next at about 16%. Donald Trump sits at just 2% — traders are firmly pricing him out of a 2028 run.
AOC edges the Democratic field at roughly 18%, a whisker ahead of Newsom near 16%, with Josh Shapiro and Pete Buttigieg in single digits. Two points between the top two makes this the tightest major primary market on the board.
The balance-of-power market prices a Democratic sweep of both chambers at about 60%, with a split — Republican Senate, Democratic House — next at roughly 30%. November's midterms are currently the highest-stakes dated event in US politics trading.
With the first round weeks away, Lula holds around 43% to win the 2026 Brazilian presidency — a strong but far from certain position. Bolsonaro and the rest of the field are priced near zero, making this effectively a Lula-vs-the-field market.
An invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 trades at about 4%. Markets like this are less about a headline call and more a live gauge of geopolitical tail risk — a few cents of movement here can signal what traders are reading in the news flow.
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