Polymarket, Kalshi, DraftKings, FanDuel
| Polymarket | Kalshi | DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing model | Peer-to-peer orderbook | Peer-to-peer orderbook | Bookmaker (fixed odds) | Bookmaker (fixed odds) |
| Typical vig / fee | ~0% take + 1–2¢ spread | ~0% take + spread | ~4.5% vig (-110/-110) | ~4.5% vig (-110/-110) |
| Product type | Binary YES/NO shares | Binary event contracts | Spreads, totals, parlays, live | Spreads, totals, parlays, SGP |
| Events covered | Politics, crypto, sports, culture | Economics, elections, sports | Sports only | Sports only |
| US legal status | Not available to US residents | CFTC-regulated nationwide | State-licensed (~25 states) | State-licensed (~25 states) |
| Deposit method | USDC (on-chain) | ACH / debit card | ACH / card / PayPal | ACH / card / PayPal |
| Min bet | $1 | $1 | $0.10 | $0.10 |
| Exit before settle | Sell at market anytime | Sell at market anytime | Cash-out at book's price | Cash-out at book's price |
| Winners limited? | No | No | Yes — accounts capped | Yes — accounts capped |
Fees and product menus change frequently; verify current terms on each venue before trading.
What -110/-110 actually costs you
A standard sportsbook line of -110/-110 means you risk $110 to win $100 on either side. Both sides add up to a 104.55% implied probability — that extra 4.55% is the vig, and it's what the book keeps regardless of who wins. To break even long-term, you need to win 52.4% of your bets.
The same coin-flip on Polymarket is 0.50 YES / 0.50 NO. Both sides add to exactly $1.00 with no house margin. Your break-even is 50% — you keep the full edge whenever your read is right.
Scale that to a $100K/yr bettor and the vig gap is over $4,000 a year of pure fees. This is why sharps who can trade both venues route straight exposure through prediction markets.
What DraftKings and FanDuel do better
- Parlays and same-game combos. Prediction markets don't offer them at all. If parlays are your product, sportsbooks are your only choice.
- Live in-play markets. Sportsbooks price hundreds of live lines per game. Prediction markets are usually pre-event or macro.
- Promos and odds boosts. Sportsbook promos genuinely tilt +EV for casual accounts — until you get limited.
- State-legal in more of the US. DraftKings and FanDuel are licensed in ~25 states with instant ACH funding.
- Familiar UX. Odds formats, cash-out flows, and app design are what most bettors already know.
What Polymarket and Kalshi do better
- No vig. Peer-to-peer orderbook pricing beats a bookmaker margin on every liquid market.
- Exit anytime at market price. No book-controlled cash-out — you sell to another trader at the real mid.
- Non-sports events. Elections, Fed decisions, crypto prices, culture, weather. A sportsbook won't take those bets.
- No winner limiting. Sharp accounts don't get throttled or banned for being profitable.
- Wider geographic access. Polymarket serves 160+ countries. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated for all US states.
Three trader profiles
You want same-game parlays, promos, and a slick mobile app. Prediction markets don't sell the product you're buying.
You're modeling straight lines and getting limited on sportsbooks. Prediction markets pay full price and never cap winners.
You want to trade elections, Fed meetings, crypto prices, or culture. Sportsbooks don't even book most of these.
Comparing prediction market venues themselves? Read Polymarket vs Kalshi. New to the mechanics? Start with What is a prediction market and How to use Polymarket.